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Ladder Predictor
Start of the season always brings Max Laughton’s great work over at fox on the ladder prediction. Rather than selecting a winner and loser for each match through the season, Max uses a win % for each game to calculate projected wins. This makes a lot of sense. A team like Brisbane might go into…
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Moving places
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Hey just a quick note, I’m in the process of moving from SquareSpace to a WordPress based site. As such, there are going to be things with the older blog posts that are probably going to break. For the moment, the old squarespace version is still up on CreditToDuBois.com so your first call should be…
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Chasing 100 career AFLW goals
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We’re in the tenth season of the AFLW and there’s a solid chance this is the season we see someone break the 100 career goals barrier. The increase in scoring, as Joe talks about above, has lead to individual players kicking more goals. There are four players who, if they maintain their current 2025 goals…
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The AFLW S10 meta shaping up
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Note: this article is published during AFLW indigenous round, and I have used the names six teams have adopted for the duration of the round. You can read more about indigenous round and those teams here: https://www.afl.com.au/aflw/indigenous/clubs As a Narrm (Melbourne) supporter it should surprise noone that I have been absolutely hanging out for the…
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Scoring sources from the first round of AFLW Season 10
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With the first week of AFLW in the books it’s worth spending some time looking at what we can get out of the early data available. I’ve started off by trying to identify score sources. This is relatively easy to get for the Men’s competition, but faces some extra challenges in the Women’s. This is…
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AFLW S10 List Construction
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With Season 10 of the AFLW launching this week I wanted to have a look at how the 18 squads for 2025 have come together. There are 22 players still with their original Season 1 clubs, and each of the founding clubs has at least one original player – Adelaide having the most with 5.…
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In the Margins
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What statistics are correlated with winning and losing in season 2025? And how do those correlations differ for different teams with different strengths and game styles? This article comes with an acknowledgement and a few disclaimers. I wouldn’t have been able to do this without the incredible work of Andrew Whelan of WheeloRatings.com – having…
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Where it all begins
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Centre bounces are one of the things that sets Australian football apart. Not so much for the novelty of the bounce, but because after a major score possession is reset to neutral. In most sports play restarts with the ball in possession, whether alternating (e.g. netball) or given to the team who conceded (e.g. basketball,…
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Shark Week
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There’s a lot still to chew through in the data behind last week’s ruck piece. Given that Shark Week starts this Sunday this topic seems only fitting. For those unaware, Champion Data gives a definition of a sharked hitout as “A hitout that directly results in an opponent’s possession.” [author’s note: I’ve had to infer…