Ladder Predictor

Start of the season always brings Max Laughton’s great work over at fox on the ladder prediction.

Rather than selecting a winner and loser for each match through the season, Max uses a win % for each game to calculate projected wins.

This makes a lot of sense. A team like Brisbane might go into every game as a warm (or hot) favourite. However, they’re very unlikely to run the table and finish 23-0. Using Win % and calculating an expected value gives you a much more realistic look at how the ladder will finish up.

There’s a few different ladder predictors out there (I’m fond of the squiggle predictor) but all of them have you select a winner and margin.

So I’ve put together a quick ladder predictor that instead of a margin, has you put in your estimated win % for each game and spits out a ladder accordingly.

You can find it at charting.football/ladder/ or a simple mobile layout at charting.football/ladder/mobile/

Once we’ve got some games in the can I’ll revisit and have it lock in the results that have already occurred.